SentalysisIn this guide
Key takeaways
- On 21 November 2025, the day Bitcoin bottomed at $80,600, attention to Bitcoin, VIX and Bear Market all spiked together.
- On 6 February 2026, the day of the crash low at $60,000, Bitcoin attention reached a 90-day Z-score of 5.3, its highest of the year.
- The April 2025 low came on the day of a VIX attention spike with a 180-day Z-score of 9.9, three days after the largest Bear Market spike of the period.
- Bull Run attention peaked five days before the August 2025 high of $124,474 and the day after the May 2026 high.
- Six of the eight checkable Bitcoin attention spikes came within five days of a two-month high or low, three times the rate of an ordinary day.
The data and what counts as a spike
This study uses Sentalysis's daily Attention Interest Oscillator for four keywords, Bitcoin, VIX, Bear Market and Bull Run, against Binance BTC/USDT from 19 October 2024 to 18 October 2026: two years in which Bitcoin rose to an all-time high of $126,200 and then fell to $57,800.
A spike is a run of days when a keyword's Z-score is above a threshold, dated by its highest day: above 2.5 on a 90-day window for Bitcoin, and on a 180-day window above 2.5 for VIX and Bull Run and above 3 for Bear Market. A major low or high is the lowest low or highest high of the two months either side of it.
At the lows: fear-related attention spiked
Capitulation is loud. When Bitcoin fell hardest, attention to the vocabulary of fear jumped far outside its normal range, on the day of the low or within days of it.
| Major low | BTC low | Attention spikes |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Apr 2025 | $74,508 | VIX the same day (Z 9.9); Bear Market 3 days earlier (Z 12.2) |
| 21 Nov 2025 | $80,600 | Bitcoin (Z 4.6), VIX (Z 2.8) and Bear Market (Z 4.1), all the same day |
| 6 Feb 2026 | $60,000 | Bitcoin the same day (Z 5.3); Bear Market the day before (Z 4.1) |
| 1 Jul 2026 | $57,800 | None within 14 days; VIX's largest spike of the period (Z 11.2) came on 11 June |
Three of the four major lows had a spike on the day or within three days. The fourth, 1 July 2026, followed the largest VIX attention spike of the two years by three weeks, and Bear Market attention spiked again on 19 July as the price recovered.
At the highs: Bull Run attention peaked with the price
Rallies have their own vocabulary. As the price pushed higher, attention to “bull run” climbed far above its six-month norm, and twice it peaked within a week of the high.
| Bull Run spike | Z-score | Nearby high |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | 5.2 | $124,474 on 14 Aug 2025, five days later |
| 7 May 2026 | 3.6 | $82,850 on 6 May 2026, the day before |
| 11 Nov 2024 | 6.3 | During the post-election rally, which ran on to $104,088 on 5 December |
The October 2025 all-time high of $126,200 is the instructive exception. Bull Run attention had already peaked in August, and the push to a marginally higher price in October drew far less excitement. Attention to Bitcoin spiked five days later instead, during the 10 October sell-off.
Bitcoin attention marks both ends
Attention to Bitcoin itself has no direction: it surges at euphoric highs and at panicked lows alike. That is what makes it useful as an alarm. Its spikes came on the day of the 14 August 2025 high, three days before the 14 July 2025 high, and on the day of the 21 November 2025 and 6 February 2026 lows. Bull Run, VIX and Bear Market then tell you which kind of extreme it is.
How often, measured
Pictures can flatter a pattern, so here are the numbers. For each spike, we checked whether its peak day fell within five days of the lowest low or highest high of the 30 days either side, and compared that with the same test on every day. Spikes too close to the start or end of the two years to check are left out.
| Attention spike | Extreme | Spikes that landed there | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin, 90-day Z above 2.5 | Two-month high or low | 6 of 8 | 25% |
| Bear Market, 180-day Z above 3 | Two-month low | 3 of 7 | 12% |
| Bull Run, 180-day Z above 2.5 | Two-month high | 2 of 4 | 13% |
| VIX, 180-day Z above 2.5 | Two-month low | 2 of 8 | 12% |
Two years is a short record, so the counts matter more than the percentages. VIX has the fewest exact hits, but its largest spikes came at the April 2025 low and three weeks before the July 2026 low.
What this does and does not show
- Not every spike is a turning point. Some came weeks away from any high or low. Size and context matter.
- Turning points are clearest in hindsight. A low is only known to be the low after the price has moved away from it.
- Two years is one stretch of the market. Relationships seen here may not hold in the next one.
Track it yourself
Everything in this study is available in Sentalysis:
- Color the chart by any keyword. Bitcoin, VIX, Bear Market, Bull Run and more, on seven assets and five timeframes. Sentiment charts.
- See every cycle. Pro history reaches back to 2017 where data exists, so you can check the same moments in earlier markets.
- Get told when attention reaches an extreme. Set a data alert for a Z-score crossing, by email or webhook.
- Combine the fear words. Blend VIX and Bear Market into one custom index and follow it as a single series.
New to Z-scores? The Z-score guide explains what a reading of 3, or 11, actually means.
FAQ
Questions and answers
Does attention spike at Bitcoin bottoms?
In Sentalysis data from October 2024 to October 2026, three of Bitcoin's four major lows had a spike in Bitcoin, VIX or Bear Market attention on the day or within three days: 7 April 2025, 21 November 2025 and 6 February 2026. Not every spike marked a low, and the pattern describes the past rather than predicting the future.
Which attention keyword lined up with Bitcoin's highs?
Bull Run attention peaked five days before the 14 August 2025 high and the day after the 6 May 2026 high, and Bitcoin attention spiked on or near the July and August 2025 highs.
Can I see this data on Sentalysis?
Yes. The sentiment charts color every candle by a keyword's Z-score, data alerts can notify you when a Z-score crosses the level you choose, and Pro history reaches back to 2017 where data exists.
Is an attention spike a trading signal?
No. Spikes describe how intensely people paid attention. Some spikes did not mark a turning point, and Sentalysis does not provide trading signals, forecasts or financial advice.